Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
AP #15Utah
5–0 · Ours #6 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–17FinalWe had UTAH 33 – ISU 22
Iowa State
3–3 · Ours #26 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 76%UTAH won
UTAH 76%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −10.5.UTAH −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.2 · UTAH covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.47final 48 · over by 1
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Devon Dampier18/27 · 206 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- 0.0039th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jaylen Raynor21/40 · 205 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2121st pct
- Comp %
- 52.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utahoffense | Played like UTAH +5.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.7%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.7%▼11.7 | 19th |
| 21st | −0.16▼0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.23 | 79th |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.07 | 56th |
| 10th | −0.31▼0.57 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.35 | 90th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Iowa Stateoffense | defenseUtah | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.5%▼5.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▼6.3 | 68th |
| 15th | −0.22▼0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.04 | 85th |
| 25th | −0.21▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.07 | 75th |
| 17th | −0.22▼0.39 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▼0.01 | 83rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UtahUTAH | Iowa StateISU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3688th | Own 215th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts7th | +1.2 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6059th | 7490th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.680th | −11.620th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | −0.5 pts20th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTAH +3.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.2, kicking −2.4, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs −3.1. | +3.568th | −3.532nd |
Season so far
Utah5–0 · 65th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
W
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5Wat Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16Iowa State3–3 · 17th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5Lvs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5W
vs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is