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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at ARIZ · Sat, Oct 24 · time TBD →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Iowa State

3–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+4.2
Rank
50
Résumé
64
Projected wins
5.5▼ 0.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Southeast Missouri StateSoutheast Missouri StateISU −30.5ISU −30.0W 38–1072
Sat, Sep 129/12at IowaIOWAISU +15.6ISU +14.5L 13–1649ISU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Bowling GreenBGSUISU −25.3ISU −22.5W 55–782ISU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26UtahUTAHISU +11.2ISU +12.0L 17–3147UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 310/3West VirginiaWVUISU −9.8ISU −3.5W 45–4249ISU · L
Fri, Oct 910/9at BYUBYUISU +13.3ISU +11.0L 10–2431BYU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at ArizonaARIZISU +12.5—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31Oklahoma StateOKSTISU PK—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at BaylorBAYISU +10.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14CincinnatiCINISU −2.8—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20at UCFUCFISU +0.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Kansas StateKSUISU +1.8—wk 13

Model on ISU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.53–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.2
Bowl (6+)22%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0387th
Success rate39.4%114th
Pass EPA+0.0390th
Rush EPA+0.0489th
Explosive rate12.8%68th
Quality-drive rate39.7%122nd
Points per quality drive4.349th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0149th
Success allowed41.2%71st
Pass EPA allowed−0.0155th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0064th
Explosive allowed12.1%80th
Havoc rate8.4%85th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.386th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−3.1 yd109th
Hidden points / game+0.1banked
Luck, wins−0.23.2 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+5.2%24th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.250th
Schedule played+6.217th
Schedule remaining+5.143rd
Full schedule+5.629th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 50th · +4.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUISUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Iowa Stateoff +0.03 87thdef −0.01 allowed · 49th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.