Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Baylor
4–1 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
55–19FinalWe had BAY 25 – ASU 27
Arizona State
3–2 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ASU 55%BAY won
ASU 55%BAY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ASU −4.ASU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.8 · BAY covered by 39.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.4.49.5final 74 · over by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BAY +4Wbeat the close by 0.5
BAY +4Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
DJ Lagway25/41 · 306 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3373rd pct
- Comp %
- 61.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Cutter Boley25/43 · 304 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 58.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bayloroffense | Played like BAY +13.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.4%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.4%▼2.7 | 51st |
| 83rd | +0.33▲0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.44 | 17th |
| 80th | +0.41▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.55 | 20th |
| 68th | +0.17▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.17 | 32nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Arizona Stateoffense | defenseBaylor | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 38.9%▼2.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▼3.9 | 59th |
| 44th | +0.01▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.12 | 56th |
| 49th | +0.05▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.11 | 51st |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.11 | 63rd |
| 16th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.3 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BaylorBAY | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3482nd | Own 2527th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts18th | +3.0 pts99th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5853rd | 5444th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.680th | −11.621st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.8 pts11th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +5.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.2, kicking −3.1, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | +5.273rd | −5.227th |
Season so far
Baylor4–1 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5Wat Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5Arizona State3–2 · 44th-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5W
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5Lvs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5W
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is