Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Baylor

4–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+9.5
Rank
29
Résumé
39
Projected wins
7.8▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
9%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at AuburnAUBBAY +14.1BAY +7.0L 16–1758AUB · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Prairie View A&MPrairie View A&MBAY −30.7BAY −37.5W 44–383
Sat, Sep 199/19Louisiana TechLTBAY −12.4BAY −17.5W 36–1957LT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26ColoradoCOLOBAY −12.7BAY −6.5W 23–1344BAY · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Arizona StateASUBAY +1.8BAY +4.0W 55–1970BAY · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17TCUTCUBAY −8.2BAY −6.0BAY −6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at KansasKUBAY +1.1—wk 8
Fri, Oct 3010/30at UCFUCFBAY −7.7—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Iowa StateISUBAY −10.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at BYUBYUBAY +7.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28at HoustonHOUBAY +6.2—wk 13

Model on BAY games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–0 · home 1–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.84–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.6
Bowl (6+)82%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP9%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 11% with a win vs TCU, 3% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0388th
Success rate41.6%90th
Pass EPA+0.1065th
Rush EPA−0.06114th
Explosive rate13.0%65th
Quality-drive rate60.3%20th
Points per quality drive3.796th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1118th
Success allowed33.1%10th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0739th
Rush EPA allowed−0.179th
Explosive allowed10.6%47th
Havoc rate12.5%11th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.17th
Turnover margin069th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+8.2 yd9th
Hidden points / game+4.2banked
Luck, wins−0.34.3 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 5–0
Rush rate over expected−6.4%118th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.529th
Schedule played−1.489th
Schedule remaining+7.331st
Full schedule+4.145th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 29th · +9.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBAYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Bayloroff +0.03 88thdef −0.11 allowed · 18th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.