Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Baylor
4–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+9.5
Rank
29
Résumé
39
Projected wins
7.8▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
9%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on BAY games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–0 · home 1–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +5.0 · closer than the market 1 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.84–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.6
Bowl (6+)82%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 3.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP9%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 11% with a win vs TCU, 3% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0388th
Success rate41.6%90th
Pass EPA+0.1065th
Rush EPA−0.06114th
Explosive rate13.0%65th
Quality-drive rate60.3%20th
Points per quality drive3.796th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1118th
Success allowed33.1%10th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0739th
Rush EPA allowed−0.179th
Explosive allowed10.6%47th
Havoc rate12.5%11th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.17th
Turnover margin069th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+8.2 yd9th
Hidden points / game+4.2banked
Luck, wins−0.34.3 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 5–0
Rush rate over expected−6.4%118th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.529th
Schedule played−1.489th
Schedule remaining+7.331st
Full schedule+4.145th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 29th · +9.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Bayloroff +0.03 88thdef −0.11 allowed · 18th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Bayloroff +0.03 88thdef −0.11 allowed · 18th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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