Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #10BYU
5–0 · Ours #14 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–10FinalWe had BYU 29 – TCU 20
TCU
2–3 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BYU 71%BYU won
BYU 71%BYU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BYU −6.5.BYU −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.7 · BYU covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.6.48.5final 27 · under by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BYU −6.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
BYU −6.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Bear Bachmeier11/24 · 62 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3411th pct
- Comp %
- 45.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jaden Craig18/25 · 187 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1029th pct
- Comp %
- 72.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BYUoffense | Played like BYU +4.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTCU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 32.8%▼22.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.8%▲7.6 | 78th |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.07 | 66th |
| 15th | −0.34▼0.90 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.12 | 85th |
| 65th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.14 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| TCUoffense | defenseBYU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.4%▼3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.4%▼1.2 | 69th |
| 16th | −0.21▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.18 | 85th |
| 34th | −0.10▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.01 | 66th |
| 9th | −0.33▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.39 | 91st |
| 41st | 1▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BYUBYU | TCUTCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3060th | Own 2848th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts81st | −1.0 pts24th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 5546th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.052nd | −1.048th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | +0.5 pts80th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BYU +5.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.7, kicking +1.6, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs +2.3. | +5.676th | −5.624th |
Season so far
BYU5–0 · 54th-hardest schedule
Wvs Utah Tech63–7covered −50.5
W
vs Arizona28–17covered −7
vs Arizona28–17covered −7W
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5Wat TCU17–10covered −6
at TCU17–10covered −6W
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12TCU2–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
L
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
W
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19L
at UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5Lvs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is