Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
UCF
3–3 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–27FinalWe had UCF 22 – HOU 30
AP #20Houston
5–1 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HOU 70%HOU won
HOU 70%HOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HOU −10.5.HOU −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.5 · UCF covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.9.50final 44 · under by 6
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UCF +12Wbeat the close by 1.5
UCF +12Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Keyone Jenkins23/35 · 253 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2320th pct
- Comp %
- 65.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Conner Weigman18/33 · 239 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0435th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCFoffense | Played like HOU +16.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHouston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 28.8%▼11.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.8%▲16.9 | 88th |
| 22nd | −0.15▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.34 | 78th |
| 21st | −0.26▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.55 | 79th |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.10 | 45th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Houstonoffense | defenseUCF | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 48.1%▼5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.1%▼6.8 | 30th |
| 55th | +0.08▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.05 | 45th |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.60 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.24 | 61st |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.32 | 30th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCFUCF | HoustonHOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 4599th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts55th | +1.8 pts91st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5956th | 7794th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.635th | +5.665th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts28th | −1.0 pts6th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +10.0: field position +9.1, kicking +1.0, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | −10.012th | +10.088th |
Season so far
UCF3–3 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5W
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5Lat Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10Houston5–1 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
L
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5Wvs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is