Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #12Texas Tech
5–0 · Ours #24 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–7FinalWe had TTU 30 – COLO 16
Colorado
2–3 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TTU 80%TTU won
TTU 80%TTU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −15.TTU −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14 · TTU covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.3.50.5final 36 · under by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TTU −13Wbeat the close by 0.5
TTU −13Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Will Hammond17/26 · 134 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 65.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Isaac Wilson26/43 · 290 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2058th pct
- Comp %
- 60.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas Techoffense | Played like COLO +3.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseColorado | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.0%▼22.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.0%▲12.3 | 87th |
| 11th | −0.26▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.30 | 89th |
| 24th | −0.22▼0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.49 | 76th |
| 12th | −0.30▼0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.13 | 88th |
| 79th | 0▲2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Coloradooffense | defenseTexas Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 40.9%▲0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.9%▼1.3 | 53rd |
| 10th | −0.29▼0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.23 | 90th |
| 32nd | −0.13▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.04 | 68th |
| 4th | −0.52▼0.50 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.52▲0.51 | 97th |
| 1st | 4▼3.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲2.3 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas TechTTU | ColoradoCOLO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3376th | Own 2522nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts72nd | −4.3 pts1st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 6675th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.139th | +4.161st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.7 pts1st | −0.7 pts17th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TTU +23.0: turnovers +10.4, field position +2.9, kicking +3.7, 4th downs −1.3, penalty first downs +3.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | +23.0100th | −23.01st |
Season so far
Texas Tech5–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
W
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5Wat Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5Colorado2–3 · 12th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameLvs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is