Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6in trend: High totals go under
Arizona
5–1 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
52–31FinalWe had ARIZ 33 – WVU 24
West Virginia
3–3 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARIZ 72%ARIZ won
ARIZ 72%ARIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARIZ −2.5.ARIZ −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.3 · ARIZ covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.4.61final 83 · over by 22
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARIZ −3Wbeat the close by 0.5
ARIZ −3Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Noah Fifita16/23 · 341 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5486th pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Michael Hawkins Jr.11/28 · 219 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 39.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizonaoffense | Played like ARIZ +7.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWest Virginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 47.1%▼1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.1%▼0.1 | 33rd |
| 73rd | +0.23▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.01 | 27th |
| 86th | +0.52▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.52▼0.16 | 14th |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.17 | 63rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| West Virginiaoffense | defenseArizona | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 39.2%▼3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.2%▼1.8 | 58th |
| 56th | +0.09▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.08 | 45th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.11 | 64th |
| 65th | +0.15▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.17 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArizonaARIZ | West VirginiaWVU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3274th | Own 3166th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.6 pts27th | +0.3 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5138th | 102100th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.583rd | −14.517th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 698th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −1.1 pts5th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARIZ +7.0: field position +0.6, kicking −0.6, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +7.079th | −7.021st |
Season so far
Arizona5–1 · 96th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
L
at BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7W
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5W
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5W
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7Wat West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5West Virginia3–3 · 49th-hardest schedule
W
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3Lvs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is