Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #22Houston
5–1 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–16FinalWe had HOU 27 – KSU 28
Kansas State
3–2 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KSU 54%HOU won
KSU 54%HOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KSU −2.5.KSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.4 · HOU covered by 21.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.5.55.5final 51 · under by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.HOU +2.5Wmatched the close
HOU +2.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Conner Weigman19/30 · 242 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5887th pct
- Comp %
- 63.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Avery Johnson16/30 · 182 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0846th pct
- Comp %
- 53.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Houstonoffense | Played like HOU +9.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.5%▼0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.5%▼16.7 | 20th |
| 83rd | +0.33▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.35 | 17th |
| 96th | +0.81▲0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.81▼0.89 | 4th |
| 50th | +0.04▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.01 | 50th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
| Kansas Stateoffense | defenseHouston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 45.0%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▼3.4 | 39th |
| 60th | +0.12▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.01 | 40th |
| 48th | +0.03▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.19 | 52nd |
| 77th | +0.24▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.30 | 23rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| HoustonHOU | Kansas StateKSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2634th | Own 2633rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.5 pts6th | +0.4 pts55th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 4020th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +4.262nd | −4.239th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 370th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.9 pts92nd | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +2.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.1, kicking −2.0, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +0.8. | +2.664th | −2.636th |
Season so far
Houston5–1 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
L
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5W
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5Wat Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5Kansas State3–2 · 74th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6Lvs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is