Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Arizona State
3–2 · Ours #73Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–31Our projected score
AP #10Texas Tech
5–0 · Ours #20Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TTU 80%
TTU 80%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TTU −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −13.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.0 · opened 48.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.ASU +14.5-108 DraftKings50% to cover · -3.4% EV
ASU +14.5-108 DraftKings50% to cover · -3.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Cutter BoleySophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0387th
- Comp %
- 63.1
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Will HammondSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0777th
- Comp %
- 68.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Texas Techoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseArizona State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116th | −0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.02 | 39th |
| 43rd | 46.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.5% | 45th |
| 98th | +0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.05 | 43rd |
| 116th | −0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.02 | 71st |
| 54th | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.3% | 61st |
| Arizona Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseTexas Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | +0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.11 | 20th |
| 54th | 44.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.3% | 44th |
| 96th | +0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.11 | 30th |
| 75th | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.11 | 19th |
| 19th | 15.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.4% | 64th |
Team stats
| Texas TechTTU | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +4.74th | −0.079th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.647th | 0.075th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 56%43rd | 45%106th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4843rd | 3.7393rd |
| Time of possession | 28:0681st | 29:1259th |
| Plays per game | 6752nd | 6759th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +8 | 0 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 16 | 8 – 8 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 9.7%54th | 7.4%108th |
Season so far
Arizona State3–2 · 44th-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5W
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5L
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5W
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21Texas Tech5–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
W
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5W
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is