Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Kansas
2–3 · Ours #36Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–27Our projected score
Kansas State
3–2 · Ours #49Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.KU 52%
KU 52%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.KSU −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.55.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 54.3 · opened 54.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.KU +4.5-105 DraftKings52% to cover · +0.6% EV
KU +4.5-105 DraftKings52% to cover · +0.6% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Isaiah MarshallSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1653rd
- Comp %
- 53.9
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Avery JohnsonSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2341st
- Comp %
- 64.0
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Kansas Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseKansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | +0.20 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.08 | 25th |
| 30th | 48.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 35.7% | 24th |
| 37th | +0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.02 | 54th |
| 28th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.14 | 13th |
| 79th | 12.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.0% | 35th |
| Kansasoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseKansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.05 | 78th |
| 60th | 43.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.9% | 39th |
| 48th | +0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.08 | 84th |
| 66th | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.03 | 74th |
| 9th | 16.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.4% | 119th |
Team stats
| Kansas StateKSU | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.839th | +0.958th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.450th | −4.7127th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 53%63rd | 62%16th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.0811th | 3.39109th |
| Time of possession | 31:0630th | 30:2440th |
| Plays per game | 6933rd | 7124th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | −2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 6 | 9 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 10.7%41st | 12.6%10th |
Season so far
Kansas2–3 · 24th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4L
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16Kansas State3–2 · 74th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is