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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at KSU · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kansas

2–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+6.8
Rank
36
Résumé
93
Projected wins
6.1▲ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4Long Island UniversityLong Island UniversityKU −30.9KU −43.5W 51–697
Fri, Sep 119/11MissouriMIZKU +5.8KU +6.5L 21–3828KU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Arizona StateASUKU +1.2KU +5.5L 17–2464KU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Middle TennesseeMTSUKU −19.2KU −18.5W 55–090KU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at UtahUTAHKU +16.7KU +15.0L 24–4144UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Kansas StateKSUKU −1.0KU +5.0KU +4.5Lean · +0.6%
Sat, Oct 2410/24BaylorBAYKU −1.1—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at TCUTCUKU −2.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7UCFUCFKU −11.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at West VirginiaWVUKU −9.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21BYUBYUKU +3.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Oklahoma StateOKSTKU −2.7—wk 13

Model on KU games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 0–2 · home 2–2, away 0–0 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.12–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.5
Bowl (6+)40%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1259th
Success rate43.8%60th
Pass EPA+0.1548th
Rush EPA+0.0866th
Explosive rate16.8%9th
Quality-drive rate62.3%16th
Points per quality drive3.4109th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0825th
Success allowed35.7%24th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0254th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1413th
Explosive allowed10.0%35th
Havoc rate12.6%10th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.959th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−4.7 yd127th
Hidden points / game+0.2banked
Luck, wins−0.42.4 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected+3.8%33rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.836th
Schedule played+5.425th
Schedule remaining+5.044th
Full schedule+5.236th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 36th · +6.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUKUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kansasoff +0.12 59thdef −0.08 allowed · 25th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.