Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
AP #18Oklahoma State
4–1 · Ours #51Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–34Our projected score
AP #20Houston
5–1 · Ours #22Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.HOU 77%
HOU 77%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.HOU −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.62.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.3 · opened 59.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Drew MestemakerSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2145th
- Comp %
- 66.5
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Conner WeigmanSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3713th
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 15
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Houstonoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOklahoma State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | +0.25 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 73rd |
| 4th | 52.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 40.0% | 61st |
| 7th | +0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.01 | 66th |
| 44th | +0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 84th |
| 72nd | 12.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.0% | 18th |
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseHouston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | +0.14 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 71st |
| 24th | 48.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 40.4% | 67th |
| 38th | +0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.09 | 86th |
| 77th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.04 | 41st |
| 24th | 15.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.9% | 50th |
Team stats
| HoustonHOU | Oklahoma StateOKST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.763rd | +2.033rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +11.93rd | −2.0100th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 72%2nd | 63%14th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.5736th | 4.0373rd |
| Time of possession | 31:4219th | 30:2441st |
| Plays per game | 7125th | 747th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | 0 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 9 | 10 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 9.0%71st | 7.4%109th |
Season so far
Oklahoma State4–1 · 56th-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10Houston5–1 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
L
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5Wvs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is