Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:15 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
AP #11Utah
5–0 · Ours #6Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
39–14Our projected score
Colorado
2–3 · Ours #93Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 93%
UTAH 93%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.UTAH −16oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −25 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −16.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.49.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.1 · opened 49.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Devon DampierSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2531st
- Comp %
- 71.8
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Isaac WilsonJunior · 2 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.09
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Coloradooffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseUtah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.16 | 8th |
| 96th | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 32.9% | 8th |
| 87th | +0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.10 | 31st |
| 118th | −0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.24 | 2nd |
| 41st | 14.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.7% | 14th |
| Utahoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseColorado | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.07 | 29th |
| 6th | 52.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 36.3% | 26th |
| 32nd | +0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.02 | 71st |
| 57th | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.18 | 7th |
| 34th | 14.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.8% | 93rd |
Team stats
| ColoradoCOLO | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −7.4138th | +1.741st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −8.9136th | +5.520th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 37%132nd | 63%14th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.40135th | 5.0313th |
| Time of possession | 29:1262nd | 31:3621st |
| Plays per game | 7313th | 6933rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −5 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 14 – 9 | 5 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.8%6th | 8.3%86th |
Season so far
Utah5–0 · 65th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
W
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16Colorado2–3 · 12th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is