Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4in trend: High totals go under
Oklahoma State
4–1 · Ours #74 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–24FinalWe had OKST 22 – WVU 29
West Virginia
3–3 · Ours #58 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WVU 68%OKST won
WVU 68%OKST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WVU −1.5.WVU −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.5 · OKST covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.9.60.5final 65 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Drew Mestemaker19/26 · 385 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7193rd pct
- Comp %
- 73.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Michael Hawkins Jr.10/22 · 132 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.504th pct
- Comp %
- 45.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | Played like OKST +17.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWest Virginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 57.4%▲13.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.4%▼13.0 | 10th |
| 90th | +0.42▲0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.24 | 10th |
| 95th | +0.73▲0.67 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.73▼0.43 | 6th |
| 74th | +0.21▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.15 | 26th |
| 41st | 1▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| West Virginiaoffense | defenseOklahoma State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▲4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼7.1 | 37th |
| 51st | +0.06▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.01 | 49th |
| 8th | −0.50▼0.71 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.50▲0.66 | 92nd |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.34 | 17th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahoma StateOKST | West VirginiaWVU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts93rd | +0.3 pts52nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 8899th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +20.891st | −20.89th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −1.7 pts1st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WVU +1.2: field position +1.4, kicking −1.1, 4th downs −2.2, penalty first downs +3.1. | −1.245th | +1.255th |
Season so far
Oklahoma State4–1 · 56th-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
Wat West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10West Virginia3–3 · 49th-hardest schedule
W
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5Lvs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3L
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is