Board · Sat, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 0
Preseason modelNo 2026 games are in the book yet. This line starts from last season and the offseason evidence shown below.
Spread
Our lineSTAN −4.7
MarketSTAN −4as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
Pick
STAN −4-112
STAN −4-112Stanford wins by 4 or more in 50% of the games we simulate.
Total
Our total53.9
Market48.5as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
PickOver 48.5-110
The game clears 48.5 in 50% of the games we simulate.
Win probability
Hawai'i 39%Stanford 61%
Shape of the game
Margin
Stanford by 4+50%Points
Over 48.550%
Line movement
| | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | O/U | Spread | O/U | |
| Tue Aug 1111:29PM | −5.5 | — | −5.5 | — |
| Fri Aug 149:24PM | −5.5 | 49.5 | −5.5 | 49.5 |
| Wed Aug 199:05AM | −6 | 49.5 | −5.5 | 49.5 |
| Thu Aug 209:05AM | −5.5 | 49.5 | −5.5 | 49.5 |
| Fri Aug 219:05AM | −5.5 | 49.5 | −5.5 | 48.5 |
| Tue Aug 257:05AM | −4 | 48.5 | −3.5 | 48.5 |
| Thu Aug 2712:05PM | −3.5 | 48.5 | −3.5 | 48.5 |
| Thu Aug 275:05PM | −4 | 48.5 | −3.5 | 48.5 |
| Fri Aug 2812:05PM | −4 | 48.5 | −4.5 | 48.5 |
First pull, latest pull, and every pull where DraftKings or FanDuel moved — unchanged pulls are not repeated. Times ET; a snapshot cadence, not a live price.
Stanford is the favourite, so the minus number is theirs. The line has come 1.5 points toward our −4.7.
The rosters
what the early-season model weighs
HAWSTAN2025 season8–4 · +0.14–8 · −6.1
Roster talent426121st70640th
Portal net stars+2410th−1995th
Recruiting class162123rd21937th
Roster talent is weighted trailing recruiting classes until this year's talent composite publishes. Portal counts moves through Aug 15. Ranks are FBS-wide.
Prediction by cfb_best at code revision 7ebdce4, run Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT on 9,503 training games. Once a game kicks off the numbers freeze and grade as-is.