Stanford

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs Elon · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

2–4 FBS · ACC · this season

Rating

−10.4

Rank

113

Résumé

Projected wins

3.9▲ 0.5 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Aug 298/29

Hawai'iHAWSTAN −5.6STAN −5.5W 37–2751HAW · L

Fri, Sep 49/4

MiamiMIASTAN +23.8STAN +24.5L 6–4525STAN · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

at DukeDUKESTAN +11.1STAN +9.5L 7–3526DUKE · W

Sat, Sep 269/26

Georgia TechGTSTAN +5.5STAN +5.5W 34–2762STAN · W

Sat, Oct 310/3

at Wake ForestWAKESTAN +14.1STAN +12.5L 3–5714WAKE · W

Sat, Oct 1010/10

at Notre DameNDSTAN +42.1STAN +37.5L 7–584ND · W

Sat, Oct 1710/17ElonElonSTAN −28.5STAN −32.5Elon +32.5Pass

Fri, Oct 2310/23

NC StateNCSUSTAN +10.0—wk 8

Sat, Oct 3110/31

at LouisvilleLOUSTAN +24.6—wk 9

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at Virginia TechVTSTAN +18.6—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

at CaliforniaCALSTAN +6.7—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

SMUSMUSTAN +15.2—wk 13

Model on STAN games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 4–1, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +1.4 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

3.92–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.4

Bowl (6+)1%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game0%

Win conference0%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play−0.01110th

Success rate37.0%125th

Pass EPA+0.0682nd

Rush EPA−0.09127th

Explosive rate9.9%122nd

Quality-drive rate37.5%130th

Points per quality drive3.6103rd

Defense

EPA allowed+0.23133rd

Success allowed48.5%133rd

Pass EPA allowed+0.22113th

Rush EPA allowed+0.24133rd

Explosive allowed16.4%135th

Havoc rate6.1%128th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−3.4123rd

Turnover margin−294th · exp. 0.0

Field position margin−3.1 yd108th

Hidden points / game−0.9gave up

Luck, wins+0.61.4 earned

One-score record1–0flipped 1–5

Rush rate over expected−4.0%97th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−10.4113th

Schedule played+8.710th

Schedule remaining+2.263rd

Full schedule+5.727th

Pregame expected wins1.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 113th · −10.4Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Stanfordoff −0.01 110thdef +0.23 allowed · 133rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.