Board · Sat, Aug 29 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 0
Preseason modelNo 2026 games are in the book yet. This line starts from last season and the offseason evidence shown below.
Spread
Our linePK
MarketUVA −4as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
Pick
NCSU +4-112
NCSU +4-112Virginia wins by 4 or more in 50% of the games we simulate.
Total
Our total56.2
Market51.5as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
PickOver 51.5no DK/FD price
The game clears 51.5 in 51% of the games we simulate.
No market total yet — the over/under lean appears once books hang a number.
Win probability
NC State 50%Virginia 50%
Shape of the game
Margin
Virginia by 4+50%Line movement
|  | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | O/U | Spread | O/U | |
| Tue Aug 1111:29PM | −5.5 | — | −5.5 | — |
| Fri Aug 149:24PM | −5.5 | 53.5 | −5.5 | 53.5 |
| Sat Aug 229:05AM | −5.5 | 53.5 | −5.5 | 52.5 |
| Tue Aug 257:05AM | −5.5 | 53.5 | −5.5 | 53.5 |
| Thu Aug 277:05AM | −4 | 52.5 | −4.5 | 53.5 |
| Thu Aug 275:05PM | −4 | 51.5 | −4.5 | 51.5 |
| Fri Aug 2812:05PM | −4 | 51.5 | −4.5 | 51.5 |
First pull, latest pull, and every pull where DraftKings or FanDuel moved — unchanged pulls are not repeated. Times ET; a snapshot cadence, not a live price.
Virginia is the favourite, so the minus number is theirs. The line has come 1.5 points toward our pick 'em.
The rosters
what the early-season model weighsNCSUUVA2025 season7–5 · +4.510–3 · +8.8
Roster talent72933rd60374th
Portal net stars−1282nd+285th
Recruiting class21049th172111th
Roster talent is weighted trailing recruiting classes until this year's talent composite publishes. Portal counts moves through Aug 15. Ranks are FBS-wide.
Prediction by cfb_best at code revision 7ebdce4, run Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT on 9,503 training games. Once a game kicks off the numbers freeze and grade as-is.