LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College

Virginia

0–0 FBS · ACC · 2026
Rating
+8.8
Rank
26
Résumé
—
Our picks
—
2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Virginia's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
6.9projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)73%
9+ wins26%
11+ wins4%

Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 26thAP 16thFinal

Playoff picture

from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game14%
Win conference7%
Make the CFP10%
First-round bye2%
Win it all1%
  • a CFP bid: 18% with a win vs NC State, 2% with a loss.

Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.5
10–3 vs 7.5
One-score games flipped
8–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+8
expected +8.5

Luck: +4.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 43rd · +4.8 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.678th
Offense play value−1.087th
Defense efficiency+2.917th
Defense play value+3.222nd
Drive finishing−0.383rd
Field position+0.631st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.1135th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.3 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.7
44th
Havoc rate
10.8%
68th
Rush rate over expected
−2.7%
92nd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUVAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Virginiaoff +0.01 78thdef −0.06 26th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog4–3
Home / away side3–4 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+4.2 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.670th
Full season+0.670th

Upcoming

our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
DateOpponentOur lineMarketOur call
Sat, Aug 29NC StateUVA PKUVA −4.0NCSU +4.0Pass
Fri, Sep 11Norfolk StateUVA −31.5—no line
Sat, Sep 19West VirginiaUVA −11.6—no line
Sat, Sep 26DelawareUVA −17.9—no line
Sat, Oct 3at Florida StateUVA PK—no line
Sat, Oct 10SyracuseUVA −16.0—no line
Sat, Oct 17at SMUUVA +8.1—no line
Fri, Oct 23DukeUVA −3.7—no line
Sat, Oct 31at Wake ForestUVA −0.6—no line
Sat, Nov 14CaliforniaUVA −9.1—no line
Sat, Nov 21North CarolinaUVA −8.1—no line
Sat, Nov 28at Virginia TechUVA −6.7—no line

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.