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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at STAN · Fri, Oct 23 · 10:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

NC State

3–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−2.7
Rank
80
Résumé
75
Projected wins
6.3▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at VirginiaUVANCSU PKNCSU +5.5L 8–3430NCSU · L
Fri, Sep 119/11RichmondRichmondNCSU −37.8NCSU −33.5W 73–098
Sat, Sep 199/19at VanderbiltVANNCSU +6.0NCSU +4.5L 31–3535VAN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26App StateAPPNCSU −20.1NCSU −13.0W 41–3150NCSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3LouisvilleLOUNCSU +3.0NCSU +3.5W 31–2837NCSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Wake ForestWAKENCSU +4.3NCSU +3.5L 14–3826WAKE · W
Fri, Oct 2310/23at StanfordSTANNCSU −10.0—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31CaliforniaCALNCSU −9.5—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7DukeDUKENCSU +2.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14SyracuseSYRNCSU −7.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Florida StateFSUNCSU +7.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at North CarolinaUNCNCSU +5.3—wk 13

Model on NCSU games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.33–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)44%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1543rd
Success rate43.8%59th
Pass EPA+0.2631st
Rush EPA+0.0584th
Explosive rate12.6%72nd
Quality-drive rate52.5%67th
Points per quality drive4.822nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.24135th
Success allowed45.5%115th
Pass EPA allowed+0.28126th
Rush EPA allowed+0.19124th
Explosive allowed15.3%126th
Havoc rate5.7%132nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.180th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−0.2 yd77th
Hidden points / game−1.4gave up
Luck, wins+0.82.2 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−4.1%99th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−2.780th
Schedule played+3.340th
Schedule remaining+0.268th
Full schedule+1.662nd
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 80th · −2.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNCSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
NC Stateoff +0.15 43rddef +0.24 allowed · 135th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.