Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Miami (OH)
3–3 · Ours #78 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–59FinalWe had M-OH 18 – PITT 34
Pittsburgh
5–1 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PITT 82%PITT won
PITT 82%PITT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PITT −16.5.PITT −16.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.8 · PITT covered by 28.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.5.47.5final 73 · over by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.M-OH +16.5Lmatched the close
M-OH +16.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
David McComb16/33 · 240 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0831st pct
- Comp %
- 48.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Mason Heintschel32/42 · 453 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6992nd pct
- Comp %
- 76.2
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miami (OH)offense | Played like PITT +33.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePittsburgh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 28.9%▼8.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.9%▲7.3 | 87th |
| 24th | −0.13▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.08 | 76th |
| 37th | −0.07▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.10 | 63rd |
| 10th | −0.32▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.15 | 90th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
| Pittsburghoffense | defenseMiami (OH) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 49.0%▲10.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.0%▼4.4 | 27th |
| 95th | +0.50▲0.56 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.37 | 5th |
| 93rd | +0.64▲0.71 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.45 | 8th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.23 | 22nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miami (OH)M-OH | PittsburghPITT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 2955th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.9 pts93rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3818th | 5138th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −21.48th | +21.492nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts86th | −0.7 pts14th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PITT +5.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.6, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −1.8, penalty first downs +1.5. | −5.327th | +5.373rd |
Season so far
Miami (OH)3–3 · 101st-hardest schedule
Lat Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
L
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5W
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5L
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5W
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5Pittsburgh5–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
Wvs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7W
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
W
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 12:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is