Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami (OH)

3–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−5.4
Rank
95
Résumé
94
Projected wins
6.5▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at PittsburghPITTM-OH +15.8M-OH +16.5L 14–5915M-OH · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Holy CrossHoly CrossM-OH −31.6M-OH −30.5W 45–797
Sat, Sep 199/19at CincinnatiCINM-OH +19.1M-OH +14.5L 31–3531CIN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26UConnCONNM-OH +4.8M-OH −5.5W 24–2153CONN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Bowling GreenBGSUM-OH −19.8M-OH −13.0L 20–2439M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MassachusettsMASSM-OH −4.2M-OH −2.5W 20–1944M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17AkronAKRM-OH −13.5M-OH −10.0M-OH −9.5Lean · +0.8%
Tue, Nov 311/3BuffaloBUFM-OH −7.3—wk 10
Tue, Nov 1011/10OhioOHIOM-OH +3.1—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17at Kent StateKENTM-OH −7.9—wk 12

Model on M-OH games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 1–1 · home 0–2, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.53–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.5
Bowl (6+)51%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0584th
Success rate40.4%101st
Pass EPA+0.1259th
Rush EPA−0.04110th
Explosive rate15.5%20th
Quality-drive rate53.4%62nd
Points per quality drive3.795th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14114th
Success allowed43.9%101st
Pass EPA allowed+0.23116th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0269th
Explosive allowed9.5%26th
Havoc rate6.8%119th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.021st
Turnover margin+158th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+9.6 yd6th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins+0.62.4 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−0.7%61st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.495th
Schedule played−3.1101st
Schedule remaining−11.3134th
Full schedule−7.6125th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 95th · −5.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghSyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUM-OHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Miami (OH)off +0.05 84thdef +0.14 allowed · 114th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.