Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami (OH)
3–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−5.4
Rank
95
Résumé
94
Projected wins
6.5▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on M-OH games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 1–1 · home 0–2, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 1 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.53–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.5
Bowl (6+)51%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.5 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0584th
Success rate40.4%101st
Pass EPA+0.1259th
Rush EPA−0.04110th
Explosive rate15.5%20th
Quality-drive rate53.4%62nd
Points per quality drive3.795th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14114th
Success allowed43.9%101st
Pass EPA allowed+0.23116th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0269th
Explosive allowed9.5%26th
Havoc rate6.8%119th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.021st
Turnover margin+158th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+9.6 yd6th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins+0.62.4 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−0.7%61st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.495th
Schedule played−3.1101st
Schedule remaining−11.3134th
Full schedule−7.6125th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 95th · −5.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Miami (OH)off +0.05 84thdef +0.14 allowed · 114th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Miami (OH)off +0.05 84thdef +0.14 allowed · 114th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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