Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Tulane
2–3 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–17FinalWe had TULN 27 – DUKE 31
Duke
4–1 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 57%DUKE won
DUKE 57%DUKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DUKE −9.5.DUKE −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · DUKE covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.0.51.5final 20 · under by 31.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TULN +9.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
TULN +9.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kadin Semonza11/21 · 140 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.399th pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Zeon Chriss-Gremillion in Q3
Walker Eget12/26 · 128 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 46.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulaneoffense | Played like DUKE +7.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 27.8%▼6.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.8%▲15.4 | 89th |
| 15th | −0.22▼0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.26 | 85th |
| 22nd | −0.26▼0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.33 | 78th |
| 23rd | −0.16▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.19 | 77th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Dukeoffense | defenseTulane | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 29.7%▼15.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.7%▲15.5 | 86th |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.22 | 68th |
| 16th | −0.33▼0.65 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.57 | 85th |
| 55th | +0.08▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.05 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulaneTULN | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2527th | Own 3375th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | −2.3 pts6th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5444th | 7490th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.637th | +4.663rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts20th | −0.8 pts10th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +1.6: field position +2.7, kicking −0.7, 4th downs −0.4. | −1.641st | +1.659th |
Season so far
Tulane2–3 · 89th-hardest schedule
Lat Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4Duke4–1 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is