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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tulane

2–3 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−3.1
Rank
83
Résumé
88
Projected wins
5.2▼ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at DukeDUKETULN +3.1TULN +9.5L 3–1742TULN · L
Sat, Sep 129/12South AlabamaUSATULN −12.9TULN −10.5W 28–2458TULN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Kansas StateKSUTULN +17.3TULN +19.5L 20–3134TULN · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Southern MissUSMTULN −16.3TULN −18.5W 24–2143USM · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at ArmyARMYTULN +6.5TULN +3.5L 17–2041ARMY · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16MemphisMEMTULN +6.3TULN +7.0TULN +7.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24UTSAUTSATULN +5.5—wk 8
Fri, Oct 3010/30at CharlotteCLTTULN −16.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7TulsaTLSATULN −0.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at RiceRICETULN −0.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21North TexasUNTTULN +8.2—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at South FloridaUSFTULN +6.6—wk 13

Model on TULN games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.22–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 7.4
Bowl (6+)41%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0197th
Success rate33.3%134th
Pass EPA−0.10120th
Rush EPA+0.1248th
Explosive rate12.0%89th
Quality-drive rate38.2%129th
Points per quality drive3.0121st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.10101st
Success allowed41.9%82nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.18107th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0683rd
Explosive allowed12.1%82nd
Havoc rate5.9%130th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.057th
Turnover margin069th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−0.3 yd79th
Hidden points / game+0.3banked
Luck, wins−0.12.1 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected+1.8%40th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.183rd
Schedule played−2.090th
Schedule remaining−4.585th
Full schedule−3.484th
Pregame expected wins1.6of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 83rd · −3.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTULNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tulaneoff +0.01 97thdef +0.10 allowed · 101st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.