Week 1 report · Mon, Sep 7 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
AP #19SMU
4–1 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had SMU 29 – FSU 27
Florida State
3–3 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SMU 56%SMU won
SMU 56%SMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SMU −3.5.SMU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.3 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.6.55final 51 · under by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SMU −2Wbeat the close by 1.0
SMU −2Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Kevin Jennings24/34 · 416 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6692nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ashton Daniels12/23 · 123 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1250th pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SMUoffense | Played like SMU +14.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 55.2%▲11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.2%▼12.3 | 13th |
| 75th | +0.25▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.05 | 25th |
| 91st | +0.62▲0.49 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.36 | 9th |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.28 | 79th |
| 5th | 3▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.8 | 95th |
| Florida Stateoffense | defenseSMU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.3%▼7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲2.3 | 66th |
| 41st | −0.01▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.09 | 60th |
| 55th | +0.12▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.05 | 46th |
| 32nd | −0.09▼0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.20 | 68th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SMUSMU | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2847th | Own 2741st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.9 pts11th | +1.1 pts76th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6777th | 6777th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.884th | −14.816th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.9 pts92nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FSU +12.4: turnovers +7.8, field position −0.3, kicking +2.1, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +1.5. | −12.46th | +12.494th |
Season so far
SMU4–1 · 83rd-hardest schedule
Wat Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5Florida State3–3 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31Lvs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1Lat Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 7, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is