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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs UVA · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

SMU

4–1 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+4.8
Rank
45
Résumé
34
Projected wins
8.0▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
5%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Mon, Sep 79/7at Florida StateFSUSMU −2.3SMU −2.0W 27–2467SMU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UC DavisUC DavisSMU −34.3SMU −32.0W 56–1093
Sat, Sep 199/19at LouisvilleLOUSMU −2.4SMU +1.5L 31–4134SMU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Missouri StateMOSTSMU −33.5SMU −34.5W 34–2468MOST · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Boston CollegeBCSMU −20.8SMU −21.0W 25–1648BC · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17VirginiaUVASMU −5.9SMU −9.0UVA +9.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24CaliforniaCALSMU −15.1—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at SyracuseSYRSMU −8.5—wk 9
Fri, Nov 611/6Virginia TechVTSMU −2.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Wake ForestWAKESMU +3.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Notre DameNDSMU +25.6SMU +17.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at StanfordSTANSMU −15.2—wk 13

Model on SMU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.04–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 7.6
Bowl (6+)88%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game21%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP5%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 8% with a win vs Virginia, 1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1739th
Success rate49.4%19th
Pass EPA+0.3711th
Rush EPA−0.05111th
Explosive rate15.4%22nd
Quality-drive rate64.8%8th
Points per quality drive3.890th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0260th
Success allowed36.9%30th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0158th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0478th
Explosive allowed12.5%91st
Havoc rate14.3%5th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.6109th
Turnover margin−7129th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin+7.5 yd13th
Hidden points / game−5.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.63.4 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected−5.7%114th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.845th
Schedule played−1.084th
Schedule remaining+4.155th
Full schedule+2.259th
Pregame expected wins3.0of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 45th · +4.8AP 24thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
SMUoff +0.17 39thdef +0.02 allowed · 60th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.