2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View SMU's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
7.6projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)85%
9+ wins36%
11+ wins4%
Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.
Ranking by week
Ours 23rdAP NRFinal
Playoff picture
from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game32%
Win conference14%
Make the CFP19%
First-round bye4%
Win it all1%
a CFP bid: 32% with a win vs Florida State, 5% with a loss.
Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Luck & what-ifs
2025 final
One-score record
2–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.1
8–4 vs 7.9
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
+1
expected +4.5
Luck: −1.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.
ConjPWR profile
2025 final · 35th · +6.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.751st
Offense play value+1.737th
Defense efficiency+0.750th
Defense play value+2.528th
Drive finishing+1.117th
Field position−0.699th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.099th
Third-down conversion+0.039th
Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.5 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.
Hidden game
special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.4
80th
Havoc rate
9.0%
109th
Rush rate over expected
−9.7%
129th · pass-leaning
The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
SMUoff +0.10 37thdef −0.08 21st
Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pick record · our line vs the close
7–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog4–2
Home / away side4–1 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+3.4 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12
Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.
Schedule strength
opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.967th
Full season+0.967th
Upcoming
our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
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