Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Georgia Southern
2–4 · Ours #92 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–22FinalWe had GASO 20 – CLEM 37
Clemson
3–2 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CLEM 84%CLEM won
CLEM 84%CLEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CLEM −23.5.CLEM −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.6 · GASO covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.5.54.5final 29 · under by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GASO +21Wbeat the close by 1.5
GASO +21Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Max Johnson27/47 · 244 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2616th pct
- Comp %
- 57.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Tait Reynolds16/28 · 178 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2121st pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Southernoffense | Played like CLEM +5.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseClemson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 26.2%▼20.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.2%▲20.1 | 92nd |
| 14th | −0.23▼0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.25 | 86th |
| 21st | −0.26▼0.49 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.10 | 79th |
| 32nd | −0.09▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.26 | 68th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Clemsonoffense | defenseGeorgia Southern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.3%▲0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲12.7 | 77th |
| 20th | −0.17▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.35 | 81st |
| 24th | −0.23▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.54 | 76th |
| 29th | −0.12▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.24 | 71st |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia SouthernGASO | ClemsonCLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 204th | Own 3791st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts15th | +3.8 pts100th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6573rd | 7287th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.125th | +10.176th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts8th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CLEM +5.6: turnovers −5.2, field position +5.8, kicking +3.8, 4th downs +1.3. | −5.624th | +5.676th |
Season so far
Georgia Southern2–4 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
Lat Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7Clemson3–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
L
at LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10Wvs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3W
at California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is