LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at ODU · Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia Southern

2–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−4.3
Rank
91
Résumé
114
Projected wins
5.0▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Charleston SouthernCharleston SouthernGASO −28.8GASO −28.5W 31–070
Sat, Sep 129/12at ClemsonCLEMGASO +16.6GASO +21.0L 7–2247GASO · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Jacksonville StateJXSTGASO +8.8GASO +3.0L 27–3133JXST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26HoustonHOUGASO +11.5GASO +20.5L 28–4254GASO · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Coastal CarolinaCCUGASO −1.1GASO −2.5W 31–2452CCU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10James MadisonJMUGASO +17.6GASO +8.5L 24–2751JMU · L
Thu, Oct 1510/15at Old DominionODUGASO −2.0GASO −3.5ODU +3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31App StateAPPGASO −4.1—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7MarshallMRSHGASO −5.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Georgia StateGASTGASO +8.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TroyTROYGASO +1.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Louisiana TechLTGASO −1.1—wk 13

Model on GASO games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 2–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +5.1 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.02–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.9
Bowl (6+)14%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0582nd
Success rate43.6%63rd
Pass EPA+0.1262nd
Rush EPA−0.06113th
Explosive rate12.2%83rd
Quality-drive rate49.2%82nd
Points per quality drive4.169th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0365th
Success allowed40.6%68th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0167th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0477th
Explosive allowed11.2%57th
Havoc rate9.8%51st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−4.6134th
Turnover margin−5119th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−3.2 yd114th
Hidden points / game−3.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.52.5 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−13.3%136th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.391st
Schedule played+1.459th
Schedule remaining−6.7102nd
Full schedule−3.082nd
Pregame expected wins1.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 91st · −4.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUGASOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgia Southernoff +0.05 82nddef +0.03 allowed · 65th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.