Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Old Dominion
2–4 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–44FinalWe had ODU 20 – VT 36
Virginia Tech
4–2 · Ours #63 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VT 83%VT won
VT 83%VT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VT −17.5.VT −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.5 · VT covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.3.47.5final 65 · over by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ODU +18Llost 1.5 to the close
ODU +18Llost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Quinn Henicle12/19 · 153 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1625th pct
- Comp %
- 63.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Ethan Grunkemeyer31/42 · 327 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1251st pct
- Comp %
- 73.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old Dominionoffense | Played like VT +13.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 31.8%▲4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.8%▲8.5 | 80th |
| 25th | −0.13▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.26 | 75th |
| 26th | −0.21▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.32 | 75th |
| 40th | −0.03▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.10 | 61st |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲2.0 | 84th |
| Virginia Techoffense | defenseOld Dominion | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.2%▼3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.2%▼2.9 | 52nd |
| 58th | +0.11▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.23 | 42nd |
| 58th | +0.15▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.16 | 42nd |
| 52nd | +0.05▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.21 | 48th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old DominionODU | Virginia TechVT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2741st | Own 3789th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts93rd | +1.2 pts79th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 221st | 5138th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.139th | +4.161st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts85th | +1.1 pts95th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VT +16.2: turnovers +7.8, field position +3.3, kicking −0.5, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −16.22nd | +16.298th |
Season so far
Old Dominion2–4 · 72nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
Lat Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5L
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5W
at App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5Virginia Tech4–2 · 104th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
Wvs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5W
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is