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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Old Dominion

2–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−10.0
Rank
111
Résumé
117
Projected wins
4.5▼ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Norfolk StateNorfolk StateODU −31.2ODU −41.0W 31–1062
Sat, Sep 129/12at Virginia TechVTODU +16.5ODU +18.0L 21–4434ODU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19East CarolinaECUODU +1.1ODU −2.5L 17–2052ECU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26James MadisonJMUODU +16.4ODU +3.0L 20–4649JMU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Georgia StateGASTODU +5.5ODU +2.5L 10–427GAST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at App StateAPPODU +9.6ODU +9.5W 10–358APP · L
Thu, Oct 1510/15Georgia SouthernGASOODU +2.0ODU +3.5ODU +3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Louisiana TechLTODU +7.3—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31MarshallMRSHODU −1.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Coastal CarolinaCCUODU −0.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at UConnCONNODU +14.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Southern MissUSMODU −1.3—wk 13

Model on ODU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.52–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)6%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.18136th
Success rate30.6%138th
Pass EPA−0.28137th
Rush EPA−0.10128th
Explosive rate9.7%124th
Quality-drive rate39.4%124th
Points per quality drive2.8129th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1510th
Success allowed34.9%18th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1619th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1512th
Explosive allowed10.7%49th
Havoc rate12.2%16th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−6.8137th
Turnover margin−7129th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin−4.2 yd124th
Hidden points / game−6.9gave up
Luck, wins+0.02.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected+7.7%14th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.0111th
Schedule played+0.172nd
Schedule remaining−7.0104th
Full schedule−3.886th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 111th · −10.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUODUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Old Dominionoff −0.18 136thdef −0.15 allowed · 10th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.