Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Virginia Tech
4–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+3.8
Rank
52
Résumé
57
Projected wins
7.2▲ 3.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on VT games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.24–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)73%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.2 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0969th
Success rate47.1%39th
Pass EPA+0.1164th
Rush EPA+0.0870th
Explosive rate13.4%56th
Quality-drive rate55.7%48th
Points per quality drive4.445th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0687th
Success allowed38.0%40th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1196th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0060th
Explosive allowed12.2%84th
Havoc rate14.6%3rd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.022nd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+2.5 yd48th
Hidden points / game−0.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.13.9 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected−7.8%127th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.852nd
Schedule played−3.4104th
Schedule remaining+3.658th
Full schedule+0.472nd
Pregame expected wins3.7of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 52nd · +3.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Virginia Techoff +0.09 69thdef +0.06 allowed · 87th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Virginia Techoff +0.09 69thdef +0.06 allowed · 87th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

at
at 
at 
at
at 
at 