Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Virginia Tech

4–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+3.8
Rank
52
Résumé
57
Projected wins
7.2▲ 3.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5VMIVMIVT −28.1VT −54.5W 73–397
Sat, Sep 129/12Old DominionODUVT −16.5VT −18.0W 44–2167ODU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at MarylandMDVT +5.8VT −3.0W 35–2652MD · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Boston CollegeBCVT −15.8VT −15.0W 21–1443BC · W
Fri, Oct 210/2PittsburghPITTVT PKVT −3.5L 33–3547PITT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at CaliforniaCALVT −13.2VT −9.5L 20–2537VT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Georgia TechGTVT −6.2VT −10.0GT +9.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at ClemsonCLEMVT −1.9—wk 8
Fri, Nov 611/6at SMUSMUVT +2.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MiamiMIAVT +20.8VT +16.5wk 12

Model on VT games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.24–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)73%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0969th
Success rate47.1%39th
Pass EPA+0.1164th
Rush EPA+0.0870th
Explosive rate13.4%56th
Quality-drive rate55.7%48th
Points per quality drive4.445th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0687th
Success allowed38.0%40th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1196th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0060th
Explosive allowed12.2%84th
Havoc rate14.6%3rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.022nd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+2.5 yd48th
Hidden points / game−0.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.13.9 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected−7.8%127th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.852nd
Schedule played−3.4104th
Schedule remaining+3.658th
Full schedule+0.472nd
Pregame expected wins3.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 52nd · +3.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUVTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Virginia Techoff +0.09 69thdef +0.06 allowed · 87th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.