Week 3 report · Thu, Sep 17 · 2026 Week 3
Syracuse
2–3 · Ours #80 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–27FinalWe had SYR 17 – PITT 33
Pittsburgh
5–1 · Ours #37 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PITT 82%PITT won
PITT 82%PITT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PITT −9.5.PITT −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.8 · PITT covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.1.51.5final 40 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PITT −9.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
PITT −9.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Steve Angeli13/25 · 161 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2716th pct
- Comp %
- 52.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Amari Odom
Mason Heintschel10/23 · 123 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3610th pct
- Comp %
- 43.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Syracuseoffense | Played like PITT +1.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePittsburgh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.6%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▼2.3 | 68th |
| 49th | +0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.14 | 51st |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.01 | 56th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.36 | 43rd |
| 16th | 2▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.5 | 84th |
| Pittsburghoffense | defenseSyracuse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.7%▲7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.7%▼5.1 | 34th |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.07 | 60th |
| 14th | −0.36▼0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.36▲0.34 | 86th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.07 | 23rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SyracuseSYR | PittsburghPITT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 3271st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | +1.4 pts83rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7185th | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −11.421st | +11.479th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts28th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PITT +8.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.1, kicking +1.9, 4th downs +0.5. | −8.117th | +8.184th |
Season so far
Syracuse2–3 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
L
vs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5Lat Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5W
at UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5L
at Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14Pittsburgh5–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7Wvs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
W
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 17, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is