Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
North Carolina
3–2 · Ours #56 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–28FinalWe had UNC 21 – CLEM 26
Clemson
3–2 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CLEM 64%CLEM won
CLEM 64%CLEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CLEM −4.CLEM −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.8 · CLEM covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.8.44.5final 48 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CLEM −4.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
CLEM −4.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Billy Edwards Jr.13/30 · 135 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2517th pct
- Comp %
- 43.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Tait Reynolds20/30 · 215 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0731st pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Carolinaoffense | Played like CLEM +7.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseClemson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.1%▲4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.1%▼2.3 | 42nd |
| 37th | −0.04▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.02 | 63rd |
| 19th | −0.30▼0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.14 | 82nd |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.10 | 28th |
| 41st | 1▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Clemsonoffense | defenseNorth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.5%▲11.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.5%▲2.5 | 50th |
| 61st | +0.13▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.22 | 39th |
| 36th | −0.07▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.07 | 64th |
| 87th | +0.34▲0.62 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.50 | 13th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North CarolinaUNC | ClemsonCLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3272nd | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts20th | +1.6 pts89th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 6573rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.333rd | +6.368th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CLEM +3.0: field position −0.8, kicking +2.1, 4th downs +0.9, penalty first downs +0.8. | −3.034th | +3.066th |
Season so far
North Carolina3–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
at TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
Lat Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3L
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21W
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5Clemson3–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
L
at LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameWvs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3W
at California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is