Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4in trend: High totals go under
Missouri State
1–4 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–34FinalWe had MOST 14 – SMU 47
AP #22SMU
4–1 · Ours #27 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SMU 98%SMU won
SMU 98%SMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SMU −34.5.SMU −30.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −33.5 · MOST covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.3.60final 58 · under by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Skyler Locklear14/18 · 87 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.476th pct
- Comp %
- 77.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Relieved in Q4 by Henry Belin IV
Kevin Jennings33/39 · 464 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3473rd pct
- Comp %
- 84.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri Stateoffense | Played like SMU +18.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSMU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 30.6%▼6.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.6%▲11.3 | 83rd |
| 26th | −0.12▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.24 | 74th |
| 36th | −0.08▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.21 | 65th |
| 19th | −0.21▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.36 | 81st |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| SMUoffense | defenseMissouri State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.8%▲9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.8%▼4.7 | 14th |
| 62nd | +0.14▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.06 | 38th |
| 76th | +0.34▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.06 | 24th |
| 35th | −0.07▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.20 | 66th |
| 16th | 2▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri StateMOST | SMUSMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2316th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts62nd | −4.6 pts1st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 7895th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.411th | +19.489th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts88th | −0.5 pts21st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MOST +9.8: turnovers +2.6, field position −3.1, kicking +3.7, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +9.887th | −9.813th |
Season so far
Missouri State1–4 · 100th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4Lat SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1SMU4–1 · 83rd-hardest schedule
W
at Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3Wvs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is