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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Missouri State

1–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.5
Rank
128
Résumé
128
Projected wins
3.4▼ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Texas A&MTA&MMOST +32.1MOST +41.0L 0–5015MOST · L
Sat, Sep 129/12LindenwoodLindenwoodMOST −31.2MOST −16.5W 48–1497
Sat, Sep 199/19MarshallMRSHMOST +3.9MOST +3.0L 24–3056MOST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at SMUSMUMOST +33.5MOST +34.5L 24–3432MOST · W
Thu, Oct 810/8at Western KentuckyWKUMOST +1.4MOST +2.5L 13–3438MOST · L
Wed, Oct 1410/14Kennesaw StateKENNMOST +1.1MOST +3.0MOST +3.5Pass
Tue, Oct 2010/20at DelawareDELMOST +8.8—wk 8
Tue, Oct 2710/27Sam HoustonSHSUMOST −2.6—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Florida InternationalFIUMOST +10.4—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14New Mexico StateNMSUMOST +0.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Jacksonville StateJXSTMOST +13.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LibertyLIBMOST +18.4—wk 13

Model on MOST games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.41–4 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.4
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1067th
Success rate40.3%102nd
Pass EPA+0.0873rd
Rush EPA+0.1346th
Explosive rate9.7%123rd
Quality-drive rate40.0%120th
Points per quality drive4.636th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.12106th
Success allowed47.6%128th
Pass EPA allowed+0.20110th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0681st
Explosive allowed14.1%115th
Havoc rate8.0%98th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.2120th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−6.8 yd133rd
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.51.5 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected+1.1%46th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.5128th
Schedule played−3.0100th
Schedule remaining−6.6101st
Full schedule−5.3104th
Pregame expected wins0.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 128th · −12.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMOSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Missouri Stateoff +0.10 67thdef +0.12 allowed · 106th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.