Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4in trend: High totals go under
Wake Forest
5–1 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–27FinalWe had WAKE 23 – LOU 36
AP #16Louisville
3–3 · Ours #24 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LOU 77%WAKE won
LOU 77%WAKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LOU −13.5.LOU −11.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.3 · WAKE covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.2.57.5final 57 · under by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Gio Lopez12/19 · 225 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2765th pct
- Comp %
- 63.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Lincoln Kienholz27/36 · 324 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2563rd pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake Forestoffense | Played like WAKE +2.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisville | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.6%▼7.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.6%▲0.5 | 46th |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.08 | 47th |
| 71st | +0.27▼0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.05 | 29th |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.13 | 63rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Louisvilleoffense | defenseWake Forest | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▼8.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▼0.1 | 49th |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.04 | 60th |
| 60th | +0.17▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.07 | 40th |
| 15th | −0.24▼0.74 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.13 | 85th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake ForestWAKE | LouisvilleLOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3063rd | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.8 pts91st | −0.6 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 7490th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.757th | −2.743rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | −0.5 pts23rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WAKE +3.4: field position +0.5, kicking +1.7, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +1.5. | +3.467th | −3.433rd |
Season so far
Wake Forest5–1 · 78th-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20Wat Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5W
at NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5Louisville3–3 · 14th-hardest schedule
L
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
W
vs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3Lvs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5Lat NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5W
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is