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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Wake Forest

5–1 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+11.9
Rank
15
Résumé
11
Projected wins
9.6▲ 4.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
26%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3AkronAKRWAKE −26.9WAKE −24.5W 38–1671WAKE · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at PurduePURWAKE −4.0WAKE −4.5W 38–3641PUR · W
Fri, Sep 189/18MiamiMIAWAKE +24.8WAKE +23.5L 20–3351WAKE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at LouisvilleLOUWAKE +12.3WAKE +13.5W 30–2757WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 310/3StanfordSTANWAKE −14.1WAKE −12.5W 57–387WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NC StateNCSUWAKE −4.3WAKE −3.5W 38–1474WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at CaliforniaCALWAKE −16.5WAKE −9.5WAKE −9.5Lean · +0.9%
Sat, Oct 3110/31VirginiaUVAWAKE −11.7—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7MerrimackMerrimackWAKE −52.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at SMUSMUWAKE −3.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Georgia TechGTWAKE −8.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28DukeDUKEWAKE −9.2—wk 13

Model on WAKE games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–0 · home 3–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +1.4 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.65–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins57%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game48%
Win conference16%
Make the CFP26%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 30% with a win vs California, 7% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Utah over Colorado — swings a CFP bid between 23% and 27%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2218th
Success rate48.2%27th
Pass EPA+0.3121st
Rush EPA+0.1249th
Explosive rate15.9%13th
Quality-drive rate65.5%6th
Points per quality drive4.731st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0577th
Success allowed43.0%92nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.15101st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0828th
Explosive allowed9.0%19th
Havoc rate11.4%29th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.181st
Turnover margin+619th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+3.5 yd38th
Hidden points / game+4.2banked
Luck, wins+0.74.3 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−5.2%110th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+11.915th
Schedule played−0.579th
Schedule remaining+2.064th
Full schedule+0.669th
Pregame expected wins2.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 15th · +11.9AP 21stWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWAKEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wake Forestoff +0.22 18thdef +0.05 allowed · 77th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.