Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #4Miami
5–0 · Ours #7 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–13FinalWe had MIA 31 – CLEM 15
Clemson
3–2 · Ours #44 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIA 85%MIA won
MIA 85%MIA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIA −17.MIA −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.9 · MIA covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.0.49final 54 · over by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MIA −16.5Wlost 2.5 to the close
MIA −16.5Wlost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Darian Mensah18/27 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2160th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Tait Reynolds29/44 · 295 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1149th pct
- Comp %
- 65.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miamioffense | Played like MIA +7.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseClemson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.6%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.6%▼11.7 | 20th |
| 64th | +0.16▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.23 | 36th |
| 64th | +0.21▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.49 | 36th |
| 60th | +0.11▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.01 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Clemsonoffense | defenseMiami | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.6%▲10.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.6%▼7.0 | 55th |
| 46th | +0.02▲0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.17 | 54th |
| 63rd | +0.19▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.18 | 38th |
| 7th | −0.39▼0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.39▲0.08 | 94th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MiamiMIA | ClemsonCLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2631st | Own 3271st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts84th | +1.6 pts87th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 6982nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.684th | −14.616th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts34th | +0.4 pts77th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIA +7.1: turnovers +5.2, field position −2.1, kicking −0.1, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +7.180th | −7.120th |
Season so far
Miami5–0 · 95th-hardest schedule
W
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5Wvs Florida A&M77–7covered −59.5
W
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20W
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41Wat Clemson41–13covered −14
at Clemson41–13covered −14Clemson3–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
L
at LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3W
at California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5Lvs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is