Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami

5–0 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+20.5
Rank
5
Résumé
15
Projected wins
10.7▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
88%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4at StanfordSTANMIA −23.8MIA −24.5W 45–676STAN · L
Thu, Sep 109/10Florida A&MFlorida A&MMIA −37.4MIA −59.5W 77–798
Fri, Sep 189/18at Wake ForestWAKEMIA −24.8MIA −23.5W 33–2050WAKE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Central MichiganCMUMIA −45.7MIA −42.0W 52–398MIA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at ClemsonCLEMMIA −16.9MIA −16.5W 41–1359MIA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Florida StateFSUMIA −21.1MIA −21.0MIA −21.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at Notre DameNDMIA +7.6MIA +6.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14DukeDUKEMIA −21.5MIA −21.0wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Virginia TechVTMIA −20.8MIA −16.5wk 12

Model on MIA games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–1, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.75–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 8.9
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins91%
11+ wins20%

The 7 games left add 5.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game97%
Win conference69%
Make the CFP88%
First-round bye32%
Win it all9%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.322nd
Success rate57.4%1st
Pass EPA+0.443rd
Rush EPA+0.2018th
Explosive rate15.2%25th
Quality-drive rate62.8%13th
Points per quality drive5.72nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0828th
Success allowed37.6%37th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0575th
Rush EPA allowed−0.381st
Explosive allowed9.0%20th
Havoc rate10.0%47th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.469th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +4.0
Field position margin+0.5 yd67th
Hidden points / game+5.9banked
Luck, wins+0.44.6 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−7.6%125th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+20.55th
Schedule played−2.796th
Schedule remaining+6.435th
Full schedule+3.153rd
Pregame expected wins2.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 5th · +20.5AP 3rdWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMIAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Miamioff +0.32 2nddef −0.08 allowed · 28th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.