Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami
5–0 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+20.5
Rank
5
Résumé
15
Projected wins
10.7▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
88%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MIA games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–1, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.75–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 8.9
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins91%
11+ wins20%
The 7 games left add 5.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game97%
Win conference69%
Make the CFP88%
First-round bye32%
Win it all9%
- A CFP bid: 90% with a win vs Florida State, 65% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.322nd
Success rate57.4%1st
Pass EPA+0.443rd
Rush EPA+0.2018th
Explosive rate15.2%25th
Quality-drive rate62.8%13th
Points per quality drive5.72nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0828th
Success allowed37.6%37th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0575th
Rush EPA allowed−0.381st
Explosive allowed9.0%20th
Havoc rate10.0%47th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.469th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +4.0
Field position margin+0.5 yd67th
Hidden points / game+5.9banked
Luck, wins+0.44.6 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−7.6%125th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+20.55th
Schedule played−2.796th
Schedule remaining+6.435th
Full schedule+3.153rd
Pregame expected wins2.8of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 5th · +20.5AP 3rdWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Miamioff +0.32 2nddef −0.08 allowed · 28th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Miamioff +0.32 2nddef −0.08 allowed · 28th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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