Week 6 report · Fri, Oct 9 · 2026 Week 6in trend: High totals go under
Florida State
3–3 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–44FinalWe had FSU 27 – LOU 30
Louisville
3–3 · Ours #38 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LOU 58%LOU won
LOU 58%LOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LOU −5.5.LOU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.3 · LOU covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.5.59.5final 64 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FSU +4.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
FSU +4.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Ashton Daniels21/37 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0534th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Lincoln Kienholz11/15 · 140 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2463rd pct
- Comp %
- 73.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Stateoffense | Played like LOU +20.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisville | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.7%▲1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.7%▼2.1 | 40th |
| 55th | +0.08▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.06 | 45th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.34 | 61st |
| 76th | +0.23▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.21 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Louisvilleoffense | defenseFlorida State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 56.6%▲10.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.6%▼14.0 | 11th |
| 93rd | +0.47▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.32 | 7th |
| 68th | +0.24▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▲0.12 | 32nd |
| 96th | +0.56▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.65 | 4th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida StateFSU | LouisvilleLOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 3274th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.6 pts27th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 5342nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.119th | +12.181st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts79th | −0.7 pts14th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LOU +1.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.8, kicking −0.4, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.642nd | +1.659th |
Season so far
Florida State3–3 · 21st-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31L
vs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1Lat Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5Louisville3–3 · 14th-hardest schedule
L
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
Wvs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3L
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5L
at NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5Wvs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is