Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Duke
4–1 · Ours #37 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–28FinalWe had DUKE 31 – GT 27
Georgia Tech
2–3 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 59%GT won
DUKE 59%GT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DUKE −6.5.DUKE −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.7 · GT covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.4.45final 53 · over by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GT +7Wbeat the close by 2.5
GT +7Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Walker Eget26/42 · 259 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1453rd pct
- Comp %
- 61.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Alberto Mendoza23/30 · 218 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1654th pct
- Comp %
- 76.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Dukeoffense | Played like GT +1.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.8%▼0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.8%▲1.1 | 54th |
| 69th | +0.20▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▲0.01 | 31st |
| 57th | +0.14▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.16 | 43rd |
| 80th | +0.26▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.18 | 20th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
| Georgia Techoffense | defenseDuke | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.6%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.6%▼8.3 | 37th |
| 66th | +0.18▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.26 | 34th |
| 58th | +0.16▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.22 | 42nd |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.29 | 28th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DukeDUKE | Georgia TechGT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2529th | Own 204th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.9 pts11th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 5750th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.629th | +7.671st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts80th | −0.1 pts37th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +1.3: field position +1.7, kicking −1.3, 4th downs +0.9. | +1.356th | −1.344th |
Season so far
Duke4–1 · 102nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
Lat Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5Georgia Tech2–3 · 62nd-hardest schedule
L
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5L
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12Wvs Mercer44–11missed −38.5
Lat Stanford27–34missed −3
at Stanford27–34missed −3Wvs Duke28–25covered +4.5
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is