Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Syracuse
2–3 · Ours #78 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–28FinalWe had SYR 19 – UVA 31
Virginia
4–2 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UVA 75%UVA won
UVA 75%UVA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UVA −8.5.UVA −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11 · SYR covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.0.49.5final 53 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UVA −8.5Lbeat the close by 5.5
UVA −8.5Lbeat the close by 5.5Quarterbacksthis game
Malachi Nelson16/29 · 217 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2866th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Beau Pribula11/20 · 119 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0442nd pct
- Comp %
- 55.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Syracuseoffense | Played like UVA +1.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 39.5%▼0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.5%▼0.8 | 57th |
| 59th | +0.12▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.08 | 41st |
| 70th | +0.27▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.32 | 30th |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.15 | 56th |
| 79th | 0▲2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Virginiaoffense | defenseSyracuse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.3%▲2.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.3%▼5.9 | 32nd |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.04 | 47th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.20 | 52nd |
| 58th | +0.10▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.11 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SyracuseSYR | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 228th | Own 3687th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −3.8 pts2nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8198th | 5546th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −11.820th | +11.880th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts29th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UVA +9.6: field position +4.9, kicking +2.7, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | −9.614th | +9.686th |
Season so far
Syracuse2–3 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
L
vs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5L
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5W
at UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5Lat Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14Virginia4–2 · 90th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1Wvs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is