Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Virginia Tech
4–2 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–25FinalWe had VT 34 – CAL 21
California
3–3 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VT 79%CAL won
VT 79%CAL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VT −10.5.VT −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.2 · CAL covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.4.53final 45 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.VT −9.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
VT −9.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Ethan Grunkemeyer21/31 · 288 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0138th pct
- Comp %
- 67.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jackson Brousseau29/43 · 321 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2866th pct
- Comp %
- 67.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia Techoffense | Played like CAL +9.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCalifornia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▼0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▼5.6 | 43rd |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.12 | 62nd |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.19 | 57th |
| 36th | −0.06▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.35 | 65th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
| Californiaoffense | defenseVirginia Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.1%▲11.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.1%▼8.2 | 38th |
| 65th | +0.16▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.11 | 36th |
| 71st | +0.28▲0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.29 | 29th |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.09 | 58th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia TechVT | CaliforniaCAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2528th | Own 2744th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −3.6 pts3rd | +0.8 pts69th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6470th | 7185th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.748th | +0.752nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 698th | 8100th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.6 pts85th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CAL +6.3: field position +0.8, kicking +3.1, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs +1.5. | −6.323rd | +6.378th |
Season so far
Virginia Tech4–2 · 104th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5W
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2Lat California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10California3–3 · 34th-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameWvs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is