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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs WAKE · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

California

3–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−4.3
Rank
89
Résumé
74
Projected wins
4.8▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5UCLAUCLACAL −6.7CAL +1.5L 24–4519CAL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at SyracuseSYRCAL +6.3CAL +3.0W 21–1843CAL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19WagnerWagnerCAL −34.0CAL −58.5W 49–782
Fri, Sep 259/25ClemsonCLEMCAL +7.4CAL +1.0L 10–2435CLEM · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at UNLVUNLVCAL +8.5CAL +2.5L 31–3944UNLV · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Virginia TechVTCAL +13.2CAL +9.5W 25–2064VT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Wake ForestWAKECAL +16.5CAL +9.5WAKE −9.5Lean · +0.9%
Sat, Oct 2410/24at SMUSMUCAL +15.1—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at NC StateNCSUCAL +9.5—wk 9
Sat, Nov 1411/14at VirginiaUVACAL +11.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21StanfordSTANCAL −6.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28PittsburghPITTCAL +11.7—wk 13

Model on CAL games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.83–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.7
Bowl (6+)7%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.02113th
Success rate38.5%121st
Pass EPA+0.0194th
Rush EPA−0.08123rd
Explosive rate10.5%114th
Quality-drive rate46.5%95th
Points per quality drive2.8130th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0470th
Success allowed37.3%34th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1226th
Rush EPA allowed+0.21128th
Explosive allowed13.5%103rd
Havoc rate8.8%76th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.285th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin−6.4 yd132nd
Hidden points / game−1.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.72.3 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−12.5%134th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.389th
Schedule played+3.834th
Schedule remaining+2.065th
Full schedule+2.855th
Pregame expected wins2.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 89th · −4.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCALgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Californiaoff −0.02 113thdef +0.04 allowed · 70th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.