Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6in trend: High totals go under
Wake Forest
5–1 · Ours #25 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–14FinalWe had WAKE 31 – NCSU 27
NC State
3–3 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 61%WAKE won
WAKE 61%WAKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WAKE −2.5.WAKE −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.3 · WAKE covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.6.56final 52 · under by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WAKE −3.5Wmatched the close
WAKE −3.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Gio Lopez26/33 · 303 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6992nd pct
- Comp %
- 78.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
CJ Bailey27/38 · 235 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0443rd pct
- Comp %
- 71.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake Forestoffense | Played like WAKE +18.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNC State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 48.4%▼0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.4%▼1.5 | 29th |
| 88th | +0.39▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.11 | 12th |
| 93rd | +0.67▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼0.36 | 7th |
| 49th | +0.03▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.32 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| NC Stateoffense | defenseWake Forest | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 39.5%▼1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.5%▲2.8 | 57th |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.04 | 60th |
| 66th | +0.23▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.13 | 34th |
| 4th | −0.51▼0.51 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.51▲0.45 | 96th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake ForestWAKE | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3270th | Own 2744th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts50th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 4325th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +15.785th | −15.715th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | −0.4 pts27th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WAKE +7.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.4, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +1.5. | +7.080th | −7.020th |
Season so far
Wake Forest5–1 · 78th-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5Wat NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5NC State3–3 · 40th-hardest schedule
L
at Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
L
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3W
vs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13Wvs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5Lvs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is