Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
North Carolina
3–2 · Ours #48Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–28Our projected score
Duke
4–1 · Ours #38Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 59%
DUKE 59%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.DUKE −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.5 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.47.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.7 · opened 47.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.DUKE −3.0-115 DraftKings50% to cover · -5.6% EV
DUKE −3.0-115 DraftKings50% to cover · -5.6% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Billy Edwards Jr.Senior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0291st
- Comp %
- 59.8
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
Walker EgetSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2243rd
- Comp %
- 61.2
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Dukeoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNorth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | +0.21 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.03 | 37th |
| 75th | 42.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 43.9% | 99th |
| 34th | +0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.05 | 44th |
| 26th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 55th |
| 29th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 6.6% | 2nd |
| North Carolinaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105th | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 57th |
| 66th | 43.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.9% | 50th |
| 102nd | −0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.07 | 81st |
| 97th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 30th |
| 101st | 11.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.7% | 13th |
Team stats
| DukeDUKE | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.860th | −0.283rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +3.934th | −2.4101st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 60%22nd | 41%116th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.8718th | 4.5239th |
| Time of possession | 33:184th | 26:18113th |
| Plays per game | 7028th | 56135th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +2 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 4 – 6 | 11 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 7.5%106th | 7.8%102nd |
Season so far
North Carolina3–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
at TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
L
at Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3L
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21W
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5Duke4–1 · 102nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is