Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Pittsburgh
5–1 · Ours #44Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–19Our projected score
Boston College
2–3 · Ours #100Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.PITT 77%
PITT 77%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.PITT −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.8 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.42.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.9 · opened 45.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.PITT −6.5-102 FanDuel52% to cover · +3.3% EV
PITT −6.5-102 FanDuel52% to cover · +3.3% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Mason HeintschelSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.409th
- Comp %
- 66.2
- TD
- 15
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Mason McKenzieJunior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.21131st
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 14
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Boston Collegeoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defensePittsburgh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126th | −0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.07 | 31st |
| 116th | 39.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 34.1% | 17th |
| 134th | −0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.02 | 53rd |
| 60th | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.15 | 11th |
| 43rd | 14.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.7% | 30th |
| Pittsburghoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseBoston College | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.08 | 26th |
| 77th | 42.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.7% | 47th |
| 39th | +0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.02 | 52nd |
| 110th | −0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.13 | 16th |
| 86th | 12.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.7% | 12th |
Team stats
| Boston CollegeBC | PittsburghPITT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.6126th | +1.836th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −4.6126th | +5.025th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 44%110th | 55%54th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.00123rd | 3.9480th |
| Time of possession | 27:4887th | 32:0015th |
| Plays per game | 6395th | 7215th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −4 | +6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 6 | 6 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.3%15th | 11.7%25th |
Season so far
Pittsburgh5–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7W
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
W
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5Boston College2–3 · 77th-hardest schedule
L
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7W
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3Wvs Maine22–16missed −37.5
Lvs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5
vs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5L
at SMU16–25covered +21.5
at SMU16–25covered +21.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is