Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boston College
2–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−6.4
Rank
100
Résumé
107
Projected wins
3.5▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on BC games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +0.6 · closer than the market 3 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
3.52–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.6
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 1.5 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06126th
Success rate39.2%116th
Pass EPA−0.23134th
Rush EPA+0.1060th
Explosive rate14.0%43rd
Quality-drive rate44.1%110th
Points per quality drive3.0123rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0826th
Success allowed38.7%47th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0252nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.1316th
Explosive allowed8.7%12th
Havoc rate12.3%15th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.6126th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin−4.6 yd126th
Hidden points / game−6.9gave up
Luck, wins+1.01.0 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected+1.0%49th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.4100th
Schedule played−0.578th
Schedule remaining+8.922nd
Full schedule+5.532nd
Pregame expected wins0.6of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 100th · −6.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Boston Collegeoff −0.06 126thdef −0.08 allowed · 26th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Boston Collegeoff −0.06 126thdef −0.08 allowed · 26th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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