Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boston College

2–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−6.4
Rank
100
Résumé
107
Projected wins
3.5▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at CincinnatiCINBC +7.3BC +7.5L 15–3448BC · L
Fri, Sep 119/11RutgersRUTGBC −3.0BC −3.5W 28–2156RUTG · L
Sat, Sep 199/19MaineMaineBC −33.7BC −37.5W 22–1641
Sat, Sep 269/26Virginia TechVTBC +15.8BC +15.0L 14–2157BC · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at SMUSMUBC +20.8BC +21.0L 16–2553BC · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17PittsburghPITTBC +11.8BC +6.5PITT −6.5Lean · +3.3%
Sat, Oct 3110/31at DukeDUKEBC +14.5—wk 9
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Notre DameNDBC +39.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28at MiamiMIABC +33.7—wk 13

Model on BC games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +0.6 · closer than the market 3 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.52–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.6
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 1.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06126th
Success rate39.2%116th
Pass EPA−0.23134th
Rush EPA+0.1060th
Explosive rate14.0%43rd
Quality-drive rate44.1%110th
Points per quality drive3.0123rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0826th
Success allowed38.7%47th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0252nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.1316th
Explosive allowed8.7%12th
Havoc rate12.3%15th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.6126th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin−4.6 yd126th
Hidden points / game−6.9gave up
Luck, wins+1.01.0 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected+1.0%49th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.4100th
Schedule played−0.578th
Schedule remaining+8.922nd
Full schedule+5.532nd
Pregame expected wins0.6of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 100th · −6.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Boston Collegeoff −0.06 126thdef −0.08 allowed · 26th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.