Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Virginia
4–2 · Ours #56Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–28Our projected score
AP #24SMU
4–1 · Ours #45Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.SMU 64%
SMU 64%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.SMU −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.9 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −8
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.51.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 50.8 · opened 53.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.UVA +9.5-112 DraftKings52% to cover · -2.2% EV
UVA +9.5-112 DraftKings52% to cover · -2.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Beau PribulaSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0778th
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 17
Kevin JenningsSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3910th
- Comp %
- 74.5
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| SMUoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 81st |
| 19th | 49.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.7% | 56th |
| 11th | +0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.02 | 51st |
| 112th | −0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.12 | 107th |
| 22nd | 15.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.6% | 71st |
| Virginiaoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseSMU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | +0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.02 | 60th |
| 32nd | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 36.9% | 30th |
| 47th | +0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.01 | 58th |
| 71st | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.04 | 78th |
| 93rd | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.5% | 91st |
Team stats
| SMUSMU | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −1.6109th | +2.226th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +7.513th | +3.933rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 65%8th | 42%115th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7790th | 5.406th |
| Time of possession | 28:2475th | 31:1226th |
| Plays per game | 6846th | 6844th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −7 | +7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 5 | 4 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.3%5th | 9.4%65th |
Season so far
Virginia4–2 · 90th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14SMU4–1 · 83rd-hardest schedule
Wat Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is