Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
AP #21Wake Forest
5–1 · Ours #15Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
36–20Our projected score
California
3–3 · Ours #89Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 84%
WAKE 84%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.WAKE −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.5 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −9
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.53oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.0 · opened 54.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.WAKE −9.5-110 DraftKings53% to cover · +0.9% EV
WAKE −9.5-110 DraftKings53% to cover · +0.9% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Gio LopezJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3222nd
- Comp %
- 67.4
- TD
- 14
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
Jackson BrousseauJunior · 2 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1654th
- Comp %
- 63.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Californiaoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseWake Forest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113th | −0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.05 | 77th |
| 121st | 38.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 43.0% | 92nd |
| 94th | +0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.15 | 101st |
| 123rd | −0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.08 | 28th |
| 114th | 10.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.0% | 19th |
| Wake Forestoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseCalifornia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | +0.22 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 70th |
| 27th | 48.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.3% | 34th |
| 21st | +0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.12 | 26th |
| 49th | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.21 | 128th |
| 13th | 15.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 13.5% | 102nd |
Team stats
| CaliforniaCAL | Wake ForestWAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.285th | −0.181st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −6.4132nd | +3.538th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 47%94th | 66%6th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.76130th | 4.6731st |
| Time of possession | 29:2457th | 28:0679th |
| Plays per game | 7118th | 6573rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +2 | +6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 15 | 3 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.8%76th | 11.4%29th |
Season so far
Wake Forest5–1 · 78th-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5W
at NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5California3–3 · 34th-hardest schedule
L
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5
vs UCLA24–45missed +2.5W
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5
at Syracuse21–18covered +3.5Wvs Wagner49–7missed −58.5
L
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5
vs Clemson10–24missed +2.5L
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-game
at UNLV31–39missed +1QB change mid-gameW
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10
vs Virginia Tech25–20covered +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is